Bulletin of the Geological Society of Malaysia, Volume 79, May 2025, pp. 23 – 33
Integrasi model Pentaksiran Risiko Banjir pasca gempa bumi untuk Kota Belud, Sabah (Integrated post-earthquake Flood Risk Assessment model for Kota Belud, Sabah)
Kamilia Sharir1, Rodeano Roslee2,3,*
1 Faculty of Engineering (FKJ), Universiti Malaysia Sabah, 88400 Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia
2 Faculty of Science & Natural Resources (FSSA), Universiti Malaysia Sabah, 88400 Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia
3 Natural Disaster Research Center (NDRC), Universiti Malaysia Sabah, 88400 Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia
* Corresponding author email address: rodeano@ums.edu.my
Abstrak: Tujuan kajian ini dibuat adalah untuk membangunkan model Pentaksiran Risiko Banjir (FRM) pasca gempa bumi menggunakan pendekatan bersepadu yang komprehensif di Kota Belud, Sabah. Kawasan ini menghadapi peningkatan risiko banjir akibat aktiviti pembangunan dan impak bencana alam seperti Gempa Bumi Ranau 2015. Kekerapan kejadian banjir yang berlaku saban tahun di kawasan ini ditambah pula dengan peningkatan bencana lain seperti tanah runtuh, hakisan, dan aliran debris terutamanya selepas gempa bumi menunjukkan perlunya pendekatan pengurusan risiko yang lebih sistematik. Kajian di Malaysia kurang meneliti hubungan antara gempa bumi dan risiko banjir, maka model ini mempertimbangkan faktor gempa bumi dan faktor seperti kawasan bertopografi rendah, monsun serta taufan dalam pengurusan banjir. FRM yang dicadangkan menggabungkan lima komponen utama: pentaksiran bahaya banjir (FHAs) menggunakan model hidrodinamik Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) dan indeks kerentanan banjir, pengenalpastian elemen berisiko banjir (FREI), pentaksiran kemudahterancaman banjir (FVAs), analisis risiko banjir (FRAn), dan panganggaran risiko banjir (FREv). Dapatan kajian menunjukkan bahawa hasil peta FHAs mempunyai nilai validasi dalam kategori baik iaitu 88.4% dengan mengintegrasikan antara model hidrodinamik dengan model statistik-bivariat (nisbah kekerapan). Bagi hasil FREI pula, ketumpatan elemen berisiko tinggi terletak berhampiran dengan sungai utama iaitu Sg. Kadamaian, Sg. Wariu, Sg. Tempasuk, Sg. Abai dan Sg. Gurong-Gurong. Hasil peta FVAs menunjukkan sebahagian besar dari kawasan kajian dalam kategori kemudahterancaman sangat sederhana iaitu 55.07% (~108.49 km2) dan tiada kawasan mempunyai nilai kemudahterancaman dalam kategori sangat tinggi. Hasil FRAn menunjukkan bahawa kawasan-kawasan dalam darjah bahaya dan kemudahterancaman banjir yang tinggi turut mempunyai darjah risiko banjir yang tinggi seperti di Padang Pekan, Kg Lilud, Kg Sangkir, Kg Jawi-jawi, Kg Kota Bunga, Kg Limatok dan Kg Tamau dan begitu juga sebaliknya. FREv mendedahkan tahap kesiapsiagaan dan kedayatahanan penduduk perlu ditingkatkan.
Kata kunci: Pentaksiran risiko banjir, impak pasca gempa bumi, model hidrodinamik, elemen berisiko, kemudahterancaman
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Manuscript received 3 October 2024;
Received in revised form 2 December 2024;
Accepted 13 December 2024
Available online 30 May 2025
https://doi.org/10.7186/bgsm79202504
0126-6187; 2637-109X / Published by the Geological Society of Malaysia.
© 2025 by the Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) License 4.0.
